A preliminary study on mortality attributed to tropical cyclones in Taiwan 2000–2014

Studies on mortality attributed to tropical cyclones often concern large-scale disasters. Attention is rarely paid to small-scale mortality over the long term. To understand the relationship between the environment and the behavior that contributes to mortality, this article uses a classification table to review the 1556 deaths attributed to tropical cyclones, named typhoons, in Taiwan during the period 2000–2014. The results demonstrate that the majority of outdoor deaths are associated with work-related activities, while most indoor deaths occur during non-work-related activities. Taking action, such as stopping the car on a bridge if the tail lights of a vehicle in front disappear, and not walking on the roadside when the road is flooded by muddy water, may help to reduce the likelihood of typhoon-attributed death. The findings also help to dispel four myths associated with typhoon-attributed mortality.     

自然灾害区划若干理论问题的探讨

自然灾害区划是对灾害的区域差异性的认识和分类评估并按一定标准在空间上进行划分的过程,是进行灾害宏观研究和预报的重要方法之一。本文阐述了灾害区划的理论基础、原则、指标、方法与程序,并论述了灾害区划的主要类型。     

湿热、亚湿热地区气候环境条件对高分子材料的影响

通过高分子材料在广州、海南地区三年大气自然环境曝露试验与人工加速试验对比，探索该类地区气候环境条件对高分子材料老化的规律性的影响。     

Long-term prediction model of rockburst in underground openings using heuristic algorithms and support vector machines

Rockburst possibility prediction is an important activity in many underground openings design and construction as well as mining production. Due to the complex features of rockburst hazard assessment systems, such as multivariables, strong coupling and strong interference, this study employs support vector machines (SVMs) for the determination of classification of long-term rockburst for underground openings. SVMs is firmly based on the theory of statistical learning algorithms, uses classification technique by introducing radial basis function (RBF) kernel function. The inputs of models are buried depth H, rocks’ maximum tangential stress σ_θ, rocks’ uniaxial compressive strength σ_c, rocks’ uniaxial tensile strength σ_t, stress coefficient σ_θ/σ_c, rock brittleness coefficient σ_c/σ_t and elastic energy index W_et. In order to improve predictive accuracy and generalization ability, the heuristic algorithms of genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO) are adopted to automatically determine the optimal hyper-parameters for SVMs. The performance of hybrid models (GA + SVMs = GA-SVMs) and (PSO + SVMs = PSO-SVMs) have been compared with the grid search method of support vector machines (GSM-SVMs) model and the experimental values. It also gives variance of predicted data. A rockburst dataset, which consists of 132 samples, was employed to evaluate the current method for predicting rockburst grade, and the good results of overall success rate were obtained. The results indicated that the heuristic algorithms of GA and PSO can speed up SVMs parameter optimization search, the proposed method is robust model and might hold a high potential to become a useful tool in rockburst prediction research.     

基于FP-growth算法的高校群体性突发事件关联规则分析

为有效预防高校群体性突发事件,借助数据挖掘关联规则挖掘理论,在分析高校突发事件关键诱发因素基础上,构建基于FP-growth算法的高校群体性突发事件关联规则挖掘模型。并将模型应用于事务数据库数据的分析中,研究关键诱发因素间关联关系,实现强关联规则输出。研究结果表明,多数高校群体性突发事件的发生与日期没有必然联系;内部管理因素、内外部突发事件、内部突发事件、政治因素是诱发高校群体性突发事件的主要因素,且外部因素导致的群体性突发事件影响力远远超过内部因素的影响力;当突发事件发生后,应急处置的有效性是决定突发事件影响力的重要因素。     

Thermochemical stability: A comparison between experimental and predicted data

The first step to be performed during the development of a new industrial process should be the assessment of all hazards associated to the involved compounds. Particularly, the knowledge of all substances thermochemical parameters is a primary feature for such a hazard evaluation. CHETAH (CHEmical Thermodynamic And Hazard evaluation) is a prediction software suitable for calculating potential hazards of chemicals, mixtures or a single reaction that, using only the structure of the involved molecules and Benson's group contribution method, is able to calculate heats of formation, entropies, Gibbs free energies and reaction enthalpies. Because of its ability to predict the potential hazards of a material or mixture, CHETAH is part of the so-called “desktop methods” for early stage chemical safety analysis.In this work, CHETAH software has been used to compile a complete risk database reporting heats of decomposition and Energy Release Potential (ERP) for 342 common use chemicals. These compounds have been gathered into classes depending on their functional groups and similarities in their thermal behavior. Calculated decomposition enthalpies for each of the compounds have also been compared with experimental data obtained with either thermoanalytic or calorimetric techniques (Differential Scanning Calorimeter – DSC – and Accelerating Rate Calorimeter – ARC).     

实施《工伤保险条例》的难点及对策

针对深入贯彻实施《工伤保险条例》的情况,提出了当前存在的难点有：工伤认定政策放宽带来的难点以及工伤保险与预防、康复存在事实上的脱节现象。采取了5个方面的对策：实施教育及激励约束机制,加强工伤认定工作的研究,完善工伤保险中的事故预防机制,以及建立工伤预防基金,强化安全“三基”工作。     

Surveys of historic parks and gardens

The United Kingdom offers some of the finest designed parks and garden landscapes in the world and, whilst there is a wide range of skills and a wealth of literature on the subject, there is little evidence of official effort to systematically record historic sites. This, it is argued, is a factor in the continuing decline of many examples. This paper records an attempt at a comprehensive examination of one county — Cheshire — begun in 1970. The method is described and the results discussed in some detail. Some suggestions are put forward for improvements to official incentives for site owners.     

四川盆地旱灾危险度初步研究

本文根据旱灾的特点提出了一种综合评价旱灾可能危险程度的方法,并用此法对四川盆地旱灾进行了危险度分级、分区以及防灾、减灾研究。